VIENNA, Austria / RankWire.AI / – OPEC+ will keep oil output targets unchanged for December as threats to shipping in the Persian Gulf keep supply tight and prices above $100 a barrel. Seven core members of the group made the decision at a virtual meeting on Sunday, November 1. Their crude production remains below prewar levels. Concerns that the U.S. could resume strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections are keeping geopolitical risk elevated.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman said they would maintain September 2026 required production levels for December. The combined target for the seven is about 31 million barrels per day, the same as in September, October and November. Iraq’s target is 4.431 million barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 2.676 million and Kazakhstan’s is 1.628 million. Most of the group is still producing well below those levels.
Hormuz attacks reach wartime high
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war with Iran began on February 28. Before the conflict, the waterway handled about a fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas. Maritime incident data showed at least 35 attacks on commercial ships in and around the strait in October, the most in any month of the war. Freight and insurance costs for tankers have risen sharply as a result.
Global onshore oil inventories are near their lowest levels in at least a decade, leaving little buffer against new disruptions. Hormuz shipping and crude inventories have driven prices for months. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are also increasing. President Donald Trump has said the war will be wrapped up soon, but Israeli media have reported preparations for another round of strikes, and traders are bracing for escalation after the midterms.
Brent settles near $118
Brent crude for December delivery settled at $117.64 a barrel on Friday, October 30, rising 2.4% on the contract’s expiry day after touching $118. The January Brent contract ended at $113.43. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.08% to $104.12. It was Brent’s fourth consecutive monthly increase. Brent had climbed to $110 as WTI reached $99 only days earlier, as mines and drone strikes rattled Gulf supply and shipping.
The bigger decision comes on November 29, when all 21 members of OPEC+ meet and are expected to agree on 2027 quotas. A capacity review that will set new production baselines should be completed by mid-November. The seven core producers finished reversing a 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary cut in September. Another layer of roughly 2 million barrels per day of cuts remains in force until the end of 2026.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon called Sunday’s decision the easy one and said OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027. The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of a possible surplus next year if Gulf exports recover. Until then, the producers are keeping targets steady, while attacks on shipping and thin inventories continue to support prices well above $100 a barrel as buyers seek other supply routes.