NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market reached its fifth year on Monday after four consecutive years of positive returns. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has risen approximately 119% since its bear-market low at the close on Oct. 12, 2022. That session marked the index’s lowest finish since November 2020. As of Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, up 14.1% for 2026, approaching record levels. The index also gained 1.2% over the week.
This ongoing advance ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s. It is also the seventh to reach at least four years in duration. The 119% increase is still below the average gain of 184% observed across the bull markets included in the study. Past cycles delivered significantly larger cumulative increases. The 2009-to-2020 bull market surged by 401%, while the cycle from 1987 to 2000 increased by 582%. These periods remain some of the strongest in historical comparisons.
Historically, many bull markets that have reached this stage have continued to produce positive returns. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six lasted longer than four years. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. The study also found that the typical maximum drawdown during fifth years was around 14%. These figures describe past trends but do not guarantee similar performance for the current cycle.
Support from Earnings Growth Bolsters Current Market Strength
Corporate earnings have been a key driver during this phase of the rally. FactSet reports that as of October 9, S&P 500 third-quarter earnings were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year. This marks the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25% year-over-year. At the end of September, the growth rate stood at 29.2%. Of the 19 index companies that reported earnings by October 9, 84% surpassed analysts’ average estimates. Overall, these companies’ earnings exceeded expectations by 4.9%.
Market forecasts for the rest of the year remain optimistic. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings to increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. The full-year earnings growth for 2026 is estimated at 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Additionally, these companies account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates made so far this year, according to Barclays research. The data underscores the ongoing importance of technology-related businesses in earnings revisions.
Higher Interest Rates Continue to Shape Market Conditions
The rally persists amid rising U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The central bank indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, and inflation remained elevated. Projections released in September suggest median economic growth of 2.3% in 2026, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields stay near multi-year highs as the bull market enters its fifth year. On October 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24%, and the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. Despite these higher borrowing costs, the S&P 500 finished that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. With earnings growth still robust and borrowing costs above earlier bull-market levels, stocks are approaching the fifth year close to record highs.