NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence reached its lowest point since April 2014 in September, continuing a three-month streak of declining household sentiment. The Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped by 6.7 points, settling at 81.9. Additionally, August’s figure was revised downward from previous estimates to 88.6. The survey for September was conducted from September 1 through September 23. Both current condition assessments and outlooks for the upcoming six months showed deterioration during this period.
The Present Situation Index decreased 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating a more negative view of business and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decline. This index gauges consumer sentiment regarding income prospects, business climate, and employment over the next half-year. The declines in July, August, and now September pushed the overall confidence measure further below the levels recorded earlier in the year.
The Conference Board survey revealed a noticeable shift in opinions about the current state of business. Approximately 18.5% of consumers classified conditions as good, slightly down from 18.8% in August. The percentage viewing conditions as bad increased from 17.3% to 20.4%. Perspectives on the labor market also softened, with 23.6% of respondents saying jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5%, and 21.9% stating jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations climb amid sustained high fuel prices
Consumers’ inflation outlook for the next year also grew more pessimistic in September. The average 12-month inflation forecast increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median rose to 5.1%. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that consumer prices in August rose 3.4% compared to the previous year. The BLS also reported that gasoline prices went up by 3.9% during August. AAA recorded an approximate national average of $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline on September 29, according to.
Spending plans across various sectors also showed signs of restraint. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase cars and homes both slightly declined in September. Expectations for expenditure on services, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, decreased again. However, vacation plans appeared more robust, with 42.6% of consumers planning a trip within six months. This percentage increased by 0.5 points from August, primarily driven by domestic travel intentions.
Outlook for jobs and incomes continues to weaken
Expectations regarding business conditions, employment, and income prospects all softened. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Conversely, 25.4% expected conditions to worsen, compared to 23.3%. Regarding employment, 14.0% believed more jobs would become available, while 28.4% expected fewer opportunities. Income expectations also declined, with 17.9% foreseeing gains and 15.4% expecting declines over the upcoming six months.
The survey highlighted broader financial pressures on households. Only the second time since the measure began four years ago did net views of current family finances turn negative. Confidence levels declined across nearly all age groups and income brackets on a six-month average. Toluna conducted this online monthly survey for The Conference Board, with September’s preliminary results closing on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index release is scheduled for October 27.”}